Trump heeft Cuba in houdgreep, ‘economische crisis praktisch onhoudbaar’ - bnr.nl

The Cuban economy is facing an unprecedented crisis as the incoming Trump administration signals a hardening stance on sanctions and trade restrictions, potentially pushing the island nation toward systemic economic breakdown. For European investors and entrepreneurs operating across African markets, Cuba's deteriorating situation offers both cautionary lessons and unexpected commercial opportunities. Cuba's economic challenges have been mounting for years, exacerbated by the U.S. embargo that has constrained foreign direct investment and limited access to critical markets. However, the prospect of Trump administration policies represents a qualitative shift in pressure on the Cuban government and private sector. Renewed enforcement of extraterritorial sanctions, potential restrictions on remittances from diaspora communities, and tighter controls on third-country trade could accelerate capital flight and deepen foreign currency shortages that already plague the island. The Cuban economy contracted by approximately 2% in 2022 and has struggled to recover, with inflation eroding purchasing power and energy shortages disrupting production across sectors. A further tightening of economic conditions could create a humanitarian crisis, potentially triggering mass migration and regional instability—developments that would ripple across the Caribbean and Atlantic markets where many European firms operate. From a European investor perspective, Cuba's situation mirrors broader geopolitical fragmentation trends affecting emerging