The president’s muscle: How Tinubu’s tax reforms spare the Lagos transport cartels - The Africa Report

Nigeria's recent tax reform agenda, championed by President Bola Tinubu's administration, presents a paradox that warrants careful scrutiny from European investors operating in West Africa's largest economy. While the government has positioned itself as reformist, implementation patterns suggest that politically connected sectors—particularly Lagos's informal transport and logistics networks—have enjoyed selective exemptions that undermine the stated universality of the tax regime. The Lagos transport sector, historically dominated by informal cartels controlling everything from inter-city haulage to port logistics, operates in a complex regulatory grey zone. These networks, many with deep historical ties to political power structures, have traditionally operated outside formal taxation frameworks. When Tinubu's administration announced comprehensive tax reforms aimed at broadening the revenue base and modernizing Nigeria's fiscal infrastructure, expectations mounted that this informal economy would finally face integration into the formal system. Instead, emerging evidence suggests selective implementation has protected certain actors while creating compliance burdens for formal, foreign-backed competitors. For European investors, this dynamic carries significant implications. Companies operating through formal structures—whether in logistics, distribution, or supply chain management—face increasingly stringent tax obligations while competing against informal actors enjoying de facto exemptions. This creates an uneven playing field that disadvantages compliant international operators and incentivizes regulatory arbitrage.