Rwanda warns it may withdraw troops from Mozambique's insurgency-hit Cabo Delgado

The potential withdrawal of Rwandan troops from Mozambique's Cabo Delgado region represents a critical inflection point for regional stability and investor confidence across Southern Africa. Rwanda's conditional threat, reportedly linked to insufficient European Union support for its military operations, underscores the precarious nature of security arrangements that underpin economic activity in one of Africa's most resource-rich zones. Since 2021, Rwanda has deployed approximately 1,000 troops to combat an Islamic State-affiliated insurgency in Cabo Delgado that has claimed over 4,000 lives and displaced nearly 1 million civilians. The intervention initially stabilized key areas, particularly around critical liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure operated by major international energy firms. However, the campaign has proven more protracted and costly than anticipated, straining Kigali's budget and patience with international partners. The EU's lukewarm financial commitment reflects broader European strategic ambivalence toward African security operations. Unlike direct interventions in the Middle East or Europe's periphery, African security challenges compete for limited EU defense budgets against competing priorities. This hesitation creates a dangerous vacuum where local powers grow impatient and alternative security arrangements—potentially involving less scrupulous actors—may fill the void. For European investors, particularly those with exposure to Mozambique's energy sector, the implications are substantial. Total, ExxonMobil,