Nigeria may not benefit from oil price surge amid stagflation fears – Rewane

Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads. While global crude oil prices have surged—potentially reaching levels not seen in years—leading economists warn that Africa's largest economy may be unable to capitalize on this windfall. The concerning diagnosis comes from senior analyst Bismarck Rewane and his team, who presented findings at the Nairametrics Money Fair in Lagos, highlighting a structural disconnect between commodity prices and economic resilience that should alarm European investors betting on Nigeria's oil-driven recovery. The paradox is stark: historically, rising oil prices have been Nigeria's economic lifeline. Yet current macroeconomic conditions suggest that even elevated crude revenues may prove insufficient to stabilize the naira, control inflation, or fund critical infrastructure projects. The underlying culprit is stagflation—a toxic combination of economic stagnation and persistent inflation that erodes purchasing power while dampening growth prospects. Nigeria's vulnerability to this phenomenon reflects deeper structural issues. The nation remains heavily dependent on crude oil exports for foreign exchange earnings, yet production capacity has stagnated due to underinvestment, pipeline vandalism, and regulatory uncertainty. Meanwhile, domestic refining capacity remains constrained, forcing the country to import refined petroleum products—a dynamic that consumes foreign currency regardless of crude price movements. This creates a counterintuitive scenario where higher oil