De Trump-recessie - Het Financieele Dagblad

The incoming Trump administration's expected return to protectionist trade policies is creating significant macroeconomic headwinds that European investors operating across African markets cannot afford to ignore. While the focus of American protectionism typically centers on U.S.-China relations and nearshoring strategies, the ripple effects across global supply chains and emerging market valuations pose material risks to European investment portfolios on the continent. A potential Trump-era recession, driven by escalating tariff regimes and trade tensions, would fundamentally reshape the investment landscape that European businesses have cultivated in Africa over the past decade. The mechanics are straightforward: reduced global growth dampens commodity demand, weakens emerging market currencies, and tightens capital flows toward risk-off assets. For European investors heavily exposed to African markets through manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and financial services, this scenario presents both immediate threats and counterintuitively, strategic opportunities. **The Commodity Vulnerability** African economies remain disproportionately dependent on commodity exports—crude oil, minerals, and agricultural products represent the lifeblood of major economies from Nigeria to Zambia. A U.S.-led recession would suppress global commodity prices at precisely the moment when many African governments have spent heavily on infrastructure and debt servicing. European investors holding positions in African mining companies, energy infrastructure, and agribusiness face potential